The November 2022 midterm elections are fast approaching, and political betting experts are sharing their tips on which party will win each state and control the Senate and House of Representatives. With several key races and factors at play, the outcome remains highly unpredictable.

Senate Races and Betting Odds

Currently, the Democrats hold 50 seats in the Senate, but the Republicans are favored to win control with odds of 1.54 on Betfair. The most competitive races are in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Ohio. Betting options include which party will control the Senate and which party will win each individual state.

In the closely contested states of Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona, the Republicans are favored to win all the other states. However, the race could come down to these four states, where the outcome is uncertain.

In Nevada, for example, Republican Adam Laxalt is expected to win with odds of 1.4 with Bet365. The Democrats are vulnerable in Nevada due to the state’s economy suffering during Covid and high gas prices. In Georgia, despite a weak candidate in Herschel Walker, the Republicans may still win. If neither candidate gets 50%, a later run-off is required, which could determine Senate control, as it did in 2020.

Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, the Democrats may be saved from their bad candidate decision, given John Fetterman’s poor performance in the TV debate. In Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly is favored to win with odds of around 1.8 on Betfair, but this is well below the 68% rating from forecasting site Fivethirtyeight.

The betting plan is to back the Republicans to win 51 seats at odds of 5.8 on Betfair as a trade, leaving a tally of Republicans 50, Democrats 48, with Pennsylvania and Georgia undeclared.

House of Representatives Races and Betting Odds

In the House of Representatives, all 435 seats are up for re-election, and the Republicans are strongly favored to win a majority with odds of 1.09 on Betfair. The betting options are which party gains the majority and how many seats each party will win.

The November 2022 midterm elections will be a test of overall national sentiment, with the last contested seats seeing Democrats win by 3.1%. However, current generic ballot polls show a tie, leaving everything to play for in the final week.

Normally, the party holding the White House struggles in mid-terms, and President Biden’s approval is down at 42.3%. Inflation, crime, and school choice are concerns that should hurt the Democrats. However, the reversal of the Roe v Wade ruling on abortion gave Democrats a boost during the summer, and women may turn out against Republicans in large numbers.

The Jan 6 Committee evidence has vindicated Biden’s claim that democracy itself is on the ballot, and numerous extreme, election-denying candidates could hurt Republican chances. Betting estimates far exceed forecasters, with Republicans predicted to win 222 seats and Democrats 213, a reversal of 2020.

For the Democrats to fall below 200 would require significant errors in the forecasts. The bets here are Republicans to win 220-229 seats at 4.8 and Democrats to win 200-209 at 4.0. In the race for Kansas Governor, Democrats are rated 61% likely to win, but the odds on Betfair are tied 50/50.

Conclusion

Recent betting trends imply a gamble against the polling industry, based on an assumption that polls are systemically biased against Republicans. However, at the last midterms, polls were accurate. Each election is unique, and polling firms alter their methods to correct. These November 2022 midterm elections remain highly unpredictable, and it is a common mistake to refight the last one.

In conclusion, the Republicans are favored to win the November 2022 midterm elections, with the Democrats vulnerable in several key states. However, with factors such as the Jan 6 Committee evidence and the reversal of the Roe v Wade ruling, the outcome remains uncertain.